A Strong Start to 2026: Saudi Arabia’s Fiscal and Investment Trajectory

This week marks a significant start to the year, as the Kingdom unveils clear fiscal and regulatory roadmaps for 2026. The approval of the annual borrowing plan establishes a framework for debt sustainability, while robust consumer spending data highlights a resilient domestic economy and a rapidly maturing digital landscape. At the same time, new proposed regulations for real estate ownership signal a continued commitment to opening the market to international capital while maintaining strategic safeguards.

Together, these developments offer a snapshot of a growth model that balances fiscal discipline with ambitious structural reforms.

2026 Borrowing Plan and Fiscal Strategy

The Minister of Finance and Chairman of the National Debt Management Center, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, has formally approved the Kingdom’s 2026 annual borrowing plan. Total financing needs for the year are estimated at SAR 217 billion, strategically allocated to cover a projected budget deficit of SAR 165 billion and to repay SAR 52 billion in maturing debt.

The 2026 strategy emphasizes diversification of funding sources, targeting both domestic and international markets through public and private channels. Key initiatives include:

• Expanding the Investor Base: Actively broadening participation in Saudi debt instruments.

• Variety of Instruments: Continuing the issuance of bonds, sukuk, and loans under carefully designed risk management frameworks.

Consumer Spending Resilience and Digital Migration

New data from SAMA for November 2025 shows that consumer spending in Saudi Arabia reached SAR 129.1 billion, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Traditional point-of-sale (POS) transactions grew by 5%, reaching SAR 59 billion, but the most notable trend is the explosive growth in e-commerce.

E-commerce sales via Mada cards surged 67% year-on-year, reaching SAR 29.1 billion. Meanwhile, cash withdrawals from ATMs declined by approximately 4%, reflecting a structural shift toward a cashless economy. For investors, these trends underscore the resilience of the Kingdom’s retail and digital infrastructure sectors, positioning them as key drivers of non-oil GDP growth.      

Regulatory Evolution in Real Estate Ownership

The Capital Market Authority (CMA) has opened a public consultation on a draft framework to regulate real estate ownership for listed companies, investment funds, and special purpose vehicles (SPVs) across the Kingdom, including the Holy Cities of Makkah and Madinah. The proposed regulations aim to improve market efficiency and attract international capital by establishing a clear and transparent mechanism for acquiring real estate rights.

Riyadh Bills 60,000 Landowners

The billing cycle officially came into effect on the first day of 2026, as authorities began issuing more than 60,000 invoices to landowners in Riyadh under the White Land tax. The move signals stricter enforcement aimed at accelerating land development and easing housing supply constraints in the capital.

Venture Capital Hits Two Historic Milestones in 2025

Venture capital activity in the Kingdom achieved two historic milestones in 2025, reinforcing regional leadership for the third consecutive year. According to Saudi Venture Capital Company (SVC), a record 254 venture capital deals were completed during the year, while total investment reached an all-time high of USD 1.66 billion ,a 25-fold increase compared to 2018.

These results highlight the growing maturity of the venture ecosystem, stronger participation from regional and global investors

Conclusion

The Kingdom starts 2026 on a strong footing, with a clear fiscal roadmap, resilient consumer spending, and rapid digital adoption highlighting a robust domestic economy. Regulatory reforms in real estate and the enforcement of the White Land tax demonstrate a commitment to efficient market development and sustainable growth. Meanwhile, historic milestones in venture capital reflect the maturation of the private investment ecosystem and the transformative impact of Vision 2030. Collectively, these developments underscore Saudi Arabia’s strategic balance between fiscal discipline, structural reform, and innovation-driven growth.

Sources

• Ministry of Finance / National Debt Management Center (NDMC) – Approval of 2026 annual borrowing plan and fiscal strategy.

• Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) – Consumer spending and e-commerce data, November 2025.

• Capital Market Authority (CMA) – Public consultation on real estate ownership regulations.

• Makkah Newspaper – “Riyadh bills 60,000 landowners as White Land tax penalties take effect,” 4 January 2026.

• Saudi Venture Capital Company (SVC) – Annual venture capital report 2025, including deal volume and total investment; statements by CEO Dr. Nabil Koshak.